Macro Dashboard

Global M2 YoY growth serves as the primary gauge of monetary expansion. Bitcoin, functioning as a liquidity sponge, historically exhibits high sensitivity to the rate of change in global money supply.

Signal: M2 YoY > 0% and rising is bullish; ≤ 0% or falling is bearish.

The base cost of capital. Fed policy dictates the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Pivot points in the rate cycle often mark major trend reversals for risk assets.

Regime: Hiking + M2 Deceleration = Risk-Off. Pause/Cut + M2 Acceleration = Risk-On.

The market's forecast of future growth and policy. Curve inversion signals restriction; rapid steepening from inversion typically precedes recessionary easing and eventual liquidity injections.

Inflation constrains the Fed's ability to ease. Sticky core inflation prolongs restrictive policy, while rapid disinflation opens the window for rate cuts and liquidity expansion.

Nominal money supply adjusted for CPI. This represents the actual purchasing power entering the system. A leading indicator that often turns before price action.

Key Signal: Positive Real M2 growth is the strongest structural tailwind for crypto markets.

Housing leads Shelter CPI by 12-18 months. Decelerating home prices forecast future disinflation, giving the Fed forward guidance to pivot.

The balance of idle cash at the Fed. Draining RRP balances into T-Bills releases liquidity back into the banking system, supporting asset prices even during QT.

Bitcoin acts as a high-beta play on the business cycle. It correlates strongly with manufacturing sentiment (PMI), often bottoming as PMI troughs and rallying as economic activity expands.

Hard data confirmation of the business cycle. Rising production supports sustained bull markets, while contraction signals recession risk.