Read the regime around crypto risk.
Follow liquidity, policy, inflation, labor, and cycle data in a readable sequence without reducing the regime to a black-box score.
- Liquidity
- Money growth, real M2, RRP
- Policy
- Fed funds, yields, curve
- Inflation
- Headline, core, shelter
- Cycle
- Labor and production
US liquidity impulse and Bitcoin
US M2 growth and changes in the Federal Reserve balance sheet describe two different liquidity channels. Comparing their rates of change with Bitcoin returns is more useful than comparing their raw levels.
Research read: Constructive when liquidity growth broadens, but correlation is unstable and not a timing rule.
Sources: FRED M2SL and WALCL; HB Capital BTC monthly series. Both liquidity measures are rates of change. Correlation describes overlap, not a causal or timing rule.
Bitcoin valuation and risk cycle
Realised price tracks the aggregate on-chain cost basis; short- and long-term holder cost bases show how newer and older coin cohorts differ. MVRV compares market value with that cost basis, while drawdown shows distance from the prior peak.
Research read: Cost-basis gaps and drawdown depth provide cycle context, not a timing rule.
On-chain valuation: BGeometrics daily full-node-derived series. Realised price is the aggregate on-chain cost basis; short-term and long-term holder prices split UTXOs below and above 155 days. MVRV is market value ÷ realised value; its BTC price is reconstructed as MVRV × realised price for source consistency. The free history starts in 2022. Drawdown retains the checked-in monthly history continued with cached OKX data.
Federal funds rate
The policy rate sets the base cost of capital and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Research read: Cuts matter most when liquidity is also improving.
Financial conditions and Bitcoin
The Chicago Fed index combines funding, credit, leverage, and market-stress inputs. It provides a broader view of risk availability than the policy rate alone.
Research read: Positive NFCI readings indicate tighter-than-average conditions; easing conditions can support risk-taking without guaranteeing returns.
Sources: Chicago Fed NFCI via FRED and HB Capital BTC monthly series. NFCI combines money, debt and equity-market conditions; positive values indicate tighter-than-average conditions.
Yield curve
The 10-year and 2-year spread captures how markets price future growth and policy. Inversion and re-steepening describe different phases of restriction.
Public debt regime and Bitcoin
Debt-to-GDP is a slow fiscal-regime variable. It can shape future issuance, rates, and liquidity responses, but it should not be read as a direct short-term Bitcoin signal.
Sources: US Treasury/FRED GFDEGDQ188S and HB Capital BTC monthly series. Debt data is quarterly and slow-moving; it is regime context, not evidence that issuance mechanically causes near-term BTC returns.
Headline and core inflation
Persistent core inflation limits the central bank's room to ease; disinflation can reopen it.
Real money growth
Adjusting money supply for inflation shows whether purchasing power is expanding in real terms.
Research read: Positive real M2 growth is a structural tailwind, not a guarantee.
Housing and shelter
Home-price changes tend to reach shelter inflation with a lag, making housing useful forward context for inflation pressure.
RRP and Treasury bills
Cash moving out of the Fed's reverse-repo facility can offset part of the liquidity impact of balance-sheet tightening.
Labor market
Unemployment is slower-moving confirmation of growth and financial conditions, not a direct Bitcoin forecast.
Business cycle
The verified FRED/OECD manufacturing-confidence series provides a public expansion and contraction proxy without relying on unavailable licensed ISM data.
Research read: Rising confidence confirms expansion; falling confidence warns of divergence.
Average session return
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Educational use: This page is informational and not investment advice. Provider data can be delayed or revised.
Limitations: Historical relationships are probabilistic and can break during structural market shifts.