Macro conditions behind crypto risk.

M2 YoY growth is the primary liquidity proxy in this dashboard. Bitcoin, functioning as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, has historically reacted to the rate of change in money supply.

The base cost of capital. Fed policy dictates the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Pivot points in the rate cycle often mark major trend reversals for risk assets.

The market's forecast of future growth and policy. Curve inversion signals restriction; rapid steepening from inversion typically precedes recessionary easing and eventual liquidity injections.

Inflation constrains the Fed's ability to ease. Sticky core inflation prolongs restrictive policy, while rapid disinflation opens the window for rate cuts and liquidity expansion.

Nominal money supply adjusted for CPI. This represents the actual purchasing power entering the system. A leading indicator that often turns before price action.

Housing leads shelter CPI by 12-18 months. Decelerating home prices forecast future disinflation, giving the Fed forward guidance to pivot.

The balance of idle cash at the Fed. Draining RRP balances into T-Bills releases liquidity back into the banking system, supporting asset prices even during QT.

The labor market is a slower-moving but important macro regime signal. A rising unemployment rate typically confirms cooling growth and tighter financial conditions, while stabilization supports a broader risk-on backdrop.

Hard data confirmation of the business cycle. Rising production supports sustained bull markets, while contraction signals recession risk.